Drivers of Change, Future Scenarios and Responses

The title of one of the assessment chapters is: Drivers of change, future scenarios and policy responses. Below is a detailed description of this chapter’s topics:

1. Drivers of change

This sub-chapter will collect and combine information from the other chapters about direct and indirect drivers of change that affect ecosystems and provision of ecosystem services at different spatial scales.
Indirect drivers include: demographic changes, social and economic processes, technological developments, that take place at national, regional and global scales.
Examples of direct drivers: changes in land use, resource exploitation, and invasive species.

2. Future scenarios

The information about drivers of change will serve as a basis for formulating scenarios to predict how provision of different ecosystem services will be affected in the future, given different combinations of developments in the drivers of change.
These scenarios will serve the project’s target audience by clarifying possible effects of management and policy decisions with an eye to the future. These are broad scenarios built at the national scale, and as such, they will provide general, practical insights and conclusions. However, it will not be possible to draw conclusions about specific development projects, for example about conversions of small tracts of land from one use to another.

3. Policy responses

This section will detail possible policy responses and their effects on the provision of ecosystem services under each of the scenarios. The information provided in this sub-chapter will be based on references to policy and management in the different chapters, coupled with a broader policy outlook at the national scale.
Council members have a role in building the scenarios – a long process requiring a large investment of thought and hard work. In fact, this is the only chapter in the assessment in which the outcome does not result solely from the collection of existing information, but rather from creation of new content. In later stages of the assessment, council members will be asked to comment on and contribute to the scenario-building process.